Vote counting is underway in Guinea-Bissau following Sunday’s presidential and legislative elections, a pivotal contest marked by the exclusion of the main opposition party and widespread fears of unrest.

Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, 53, a former army general who first took office in 2020 amid disputed results, is seeking a second term against 11 challengers. His strongest rival is Fernando Dias da Costa, 47, a political newcomer backed by allies of Domingos Simões Pereira, whose African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) was barred from participating over alleged late registration.

To avoid a runoff, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote. Embaló, casting his ballot in Gabu, declared: “I am the one who will serve a second term.” Dias da Costa accused the president of suppressing supporters and vowed to end what he described as “authoritarian rule.”

The election comes amid deep instability in the coup-prone nation, which has endured nine successful or attempted military takeovers since independence from Portugal in 1974. Embaló dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament in December 2023 after an alleged coup attempt and survived another reported attempt last October.

Analysts warn that excluding PAIGC — which won legislative elections in 2019 and 2023 — could undermine the vote’s legitimacy and spark violence. Political analyst Augusto Nansambe cautioned: “We are experiencing a model defined by a single person.”

Campaigns centered on infrastructure development (Embaló) versus stability and human rights (Dias). Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest nations, remains a major transit hub for Latin American cocaine bound for Europe.

Nearly one million of the country’s 2.2 million citizens were registered to vote, with official results are expected within days.